This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Spring Talladega Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Talladega Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. On non-drafting tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 1st, Carson Hocevar 13th & Josh Berry 27th)
-10 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished inside the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (9 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 21 of 337, 6.23%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 152 of 337, 45.10%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 104 of 337, 30.86%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 9, 33.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 54 of 90, 60.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Daniel Suarez
Disappointment: Ty Gibbs
Chase Elliott picked up his first win of the year a few weeks back at Martinsville, and the stats say this week he’ll pick up win number 2 on the season. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 36th -34 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 35th -32 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 37th -33 |
| 5. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 31st -26 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 14th -8 |
| 7. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 12th -5 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 39th -31 |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 29th -19 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +4 |
| 12. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 40th -28 |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 15th -1 |
| 15. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 10th +5 |
| 16. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 18th -2 |
| 17. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 20th -3 |
| 18. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 11th +7 |
| 19. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 9th +10 |
| 20. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 8th +12 |
| 21. | 33 | Jesse Love | 27th -6 |
| 22. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 28th -6 |
| 23. | 44 | Joey Gase | 30th -7 |
| 24. | 78 | Daniel Dye | 24th +0 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 6th +19 |
| 26. | 38 | Zane Smith | 5th +21 |
| 27. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 3rd +24 |
| 28. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 32nd -3 |
| 30. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 41 | Cole Custer | 38th -7 |
| 32. | 21 | Josh Berry | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 43 | Erik Jones | 23rd +10 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 13th +21 |
| 35. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16th +19 |
| 36. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th +18 |
| 38. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th +4 |
| 39. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 22nd +17 |
| 40. | 51 | Cody Ware | 21st +19 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.