This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 All- Star Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Dover Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 1st & Kyle Larson 23rd)
-9 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 24 of 453, 5.30%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 192 of 453, 42.38%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 151 of 453, 33.33%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 12, 33.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 66 of 120, 55.00%
Notes from last years All-Star Race Projection:
Last years projected winner: Joey Logano
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 2nd
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 5th & William Byron 6th)
-13 of the 23 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-5 of the 23 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all All-Star Race projections (2 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 2 of 43, 4.65%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 22 of 43, 51.16%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 8 of 43, 18.60%
-Correct Winner projections: 0 of 2, 0.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 11 of 20, 55.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Note: Since all drivers are starting the All-Star Race the Top 26 in the results below will consist of the 19 drivers locked into the final segment/7 drivers with best projection not locked into that segment. Then, the final 10 drivers in the projection are the worst projected drivers not locked in.
* denotes a driver not already locked into the final segment.
Denny Hamlin’s last All-Star Race win came back in 2015, but his speed and stats say that changes this week as he becomes 1 million dollars richer. Photo by Jerry Markland — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 17th -14 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 23rd -19 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 27th -22 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 22nd -16 |
| 7. | 48* | Alex Bowman | 9th -2 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th -12 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 43* | Erik Jones | 3rd +9 |
| 13. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 26th -13 |
| 14. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 22 | Joey Logano | 25th -10 |
| 16. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 33rd -17 |
| 17. | 71* | Michael McDowell | 8th +9 |
| 18. | 17* | Chris Buescher | 31st -13 |
| 19. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +17 |
| 20. | 21 | Josh Berry | 18th +2 |
| 21. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 14th +7 |
| 22. | 88* | Connor Zilisch | 5th +17 |
| 23. | 60* | Ryan Preece | 35th -12 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 4th +20 |
| 25. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 19th +6 |
| 26. | 4* | Noah Gragson | 11th +15 |
| 27. | 47* | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 16th +11 |
| 28. | 42* | John Hunter Nemechek | 32nd -4 |
| 29. | 38* | Zane Smith | 28th +1 |
| 30. | 41* | Cole Custer | 36th -6 |
| 31. | 34* | Todd Gilliland | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 35* | Riley Herbst | 29th +3 |
| 33. | 10* | Ty Dillon | 15th +18 |
| 34. | 16* | A.J. Allmendinger | 12th +22 |
| 35. | 7* | Daniel Suarez | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 51* | Cody Ware | 30th +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.