This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Watkins Glen Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Watkins Glen Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Road Course tracks (left& right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 8th
Last weeks winner: Chase Elliott
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-4 of the 38 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished inside the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (11 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 22 of 415, 5.30%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 164 of 415, 42.65%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 125 of 415, 33.49%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 11, 27.27%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 61 of 110, 55.45%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Christopher Bell
Disappointment: Kyle Larson
Last year SVG was the victor here at Watkins Glen, and his dominating numbers this week say he’ll be the first driver since Kyle Larson in 2021/22 to win back-to-back Watkins Glen races. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 21st -19 |
| 3. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 36th -32 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 12th -7 |
| 6. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 7th -1 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 38th -31 |
| 8. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +6 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 27th -17 |
| 11. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +7 |
| 12. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 28th -16 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 11th +2 |
| 14. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 9th +5 |
| 15. | 88 | Conor Zilisch | 20th -5 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 25th -9 |
| 17. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 24th -7 |
| 18. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 8th +10 |
| 19. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 29th -10 |
| 20. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +7 |
| 21. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 14th +7 |
| 22. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 16th +6 |
| 23. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 23rd +0 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 30th -5 |
| 26. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th +7 |
| 27. | 41 | Cole Custer | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 38 | Zane Smith | 18th +10 |
| 29. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 6th +25 |
| 32. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 21 | Josh Berry | 32nd +1 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 26th +8 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 37th -1 |
| 37. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 34th +3 |
| 38. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 35th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.