This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Texas Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Texas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Carson Hocevar
Projected Finish: 9th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Daniel Dye, 24th)
-12 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 40 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished outside the Top 25
Notes from all point race projections this year (10 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 22 of 377, 5.84%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 164 of 377, 43.50%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 125 of 377, 33.16%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 10, 30.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 56 of 100, 56.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Chris Buescher
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
In 2023 William Byron proved that he had that dog in him and won at Texas. Now, the stats and his speed in practice say he’ll win at Texas again this weekend. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 4. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 7. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 8. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 10. | 67 | Corey Heim | – |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 13. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 14. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 15. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 16. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 17. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 18. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 19. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 20. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 22. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 23. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 26. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 27. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 28. | 8 | Kyle Busch | – |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 30. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 31. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 34. | 66 | Chad Finchum | – |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 36. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 38. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.