This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 San Diego Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on 2026 Road Course (left and right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st, Ty Gibbs 9th, Noah Gragson 35th)
-Including the All-Star Race, 5 of the last 6 projected winners went on to win the race, and all 6 finished in the Top 3
-13 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-23 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished inside the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (16 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 30 of 605, 4.96%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 252 of 605, 41.65%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 217 of 605, 35.87%
-Correct Winner projections: 7 of 16, 43.75%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 88 of 160, 55.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: Connor Zilisch
Disappointment: Ross Chastain
It may come as a shock but King of the Road, Shane Van Gisbergen, has good enough stats and speed this weekend to be projected as the 1st San Diego Street Course winner. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 38th -37 |
| 2. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 10th -8 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 15th -12 |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 25th -21 |
| 5. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 37th -32 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 9th -3 |
| 7. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 21st -14 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 33 | Austin Hill | 36th -26 |
| 11. | 67 | Corey Heim | 1st +10 |
| 12. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 13th -1 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 11th +3 |
| 15. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th -9 |
| 16. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 16th +0 |
| 17. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 19th -2 |
| 18. | 24 | William Byron | 32nd -14 |
| 19. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 6th +13 |
| 20. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 17th +4 |
| 22. | 38 | Zane Smith | 4th +18 |
| 23. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 39th -16 |
| 24. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 12th +12 |
| 25. | 41 | Cole Custer | 31st -6 |
| 26. | 22 | Joey Logano | 18th +8 |
| 27. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 22nd +5 |
| 28. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 26th +2 |
| 29. | 91 | Kevin Magnussen | 27th +2 |
| 30. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +23 |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 8th +23 |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 28th +5 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 30th +4 |
| 35. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 34th +1 |
| 36. | 43 | Erik Jones | 20th +16 |
| 37. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd +4 |
| 38. | 21 | Josh Berry | 29th +9 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 23rd +16 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.