This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Sonoma Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Sonoma Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Road Course (left and right turns) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 38th
Last weeks winner: Corey Heim
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (John Hunter Nemechek 16th)
-6 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (17 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 31 of 644, 4.81%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 268 of 644, 41.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 234 of 644, 36.34%
-Correct Winner projections: 7 of 17, 41.18%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 92 of 170, 54.12%
Notable results this week
Winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
One to Watch: A.J. Allmendinger
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
After yesterday’s dominating performance in the O’Reilly Sonoma race SVG is projected to sweep the weekend by winning the Cup race as well. Photo by Douglas Stringer — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16th -14 |
| 3. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 9th -6 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 19th -14 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +3 |
| 7. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 36th -29 |
| 8. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 14th -6 |
| 9. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th +3 |
| 10. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +8 |
| 11. | 24 | William Byron | 12th -1 |
| 12. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 17th -4 |
| 14. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 31st -17 |
| 15. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 8th +8 |
| 17. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 26th -9 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 24th -6 |
| 19. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +8 |
| 20. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th -7 |
| 21. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 29th -8 |
| 22. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 22nd +0 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +10 |
| 24. | 33 | Austin Hill | 34th -10 |
| 25. | 41 | Cole Custer | 20th +5 |
| 26. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 10th +16 |
| 27. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 38 | Zane Smith | 18th +10 |
| 29. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 21 | Josh Berry | 28th +3 |
| 32. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 43 | Erik Jones | 23rd +11 |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 32nd -3 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 33rd -3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.