This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Summer Atlanta Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Atlanta Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Superspeedway (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. At non-superspeedway races, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Austin Cindric 13th, Austin Dillon 24th, Michael McDowell 29th, Austin Hill 37th)
-8 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 11 drivers finished inside the Top 11
Notes from all point race projections this year (19 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 38 of 718, 5.29%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 300 of 718, 41.78%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 255 of 718, 35.52%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 19, 42.11%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 104 of 190, 54.74%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Kyle Larson
Chase Elliott won last summer’s Atlanta race in a child created paint scheme, and the stats say that he’ll do the same thing this weekend. Photo by Jeff Robinson — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 2. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 6. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 7. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 8. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 12. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 13. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 14. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 16. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 17. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 18. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 19. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 20. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 21. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 22. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 23. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 24. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 26. | 66 | Chad Finchum | – |
| 27. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 28. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 29. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 30. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 32. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 34. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 35. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 36. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 37. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 38. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.