This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Chicagoland Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Chicagoland Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Shane Van Gisbergen
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 1st, Kyle Larson 4th, Bubba Wallace 22nd)
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (18 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 34 of 680, 5.00%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 282 of 680, 41.47%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 245 of 680, 36.03%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 18, 44.44%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 98 of 180, 54.44%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: William Byron
Disappointment: Joey Logano
Denny Hamlin has already won the Pole in qualifying and went on to win the race 2 times this year. As you see below he is projected to do it again this weekend at Chicagoland. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 36th -34 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 8th -3 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -28 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th +1 |
| 9. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 19th -10 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +9 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 21st -9 |
| 13. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 22nd -8 |
| 15. | 67 | Corey Heim | 9th +6 |
| 16. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 32nd -16 |
| 17. | 38 | Zane Smith | 28th -11 |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 5th +13 |
| 19. | 43 | Erik Jones | 15th +4 |
| 20. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 10th +11 |
| 22. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 25th -3 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 26th -3 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 24th +0 |
| 25. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 18th +8 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 22 | Joey Logano | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 29th +0 |
| 30. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 38th -7 |
| 32. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 41 | Cole Custer | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 27th +8 |
| 36. | 21 | Josh Berry | 33rd +3 |
| 37. | 33 | Austin Hill | 37th +0 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 30th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.