This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Indianapolis Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Indianapolis Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Big tracks (2+ miles, non-drafting, non-road course) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Christopher Bell
Finished: 19th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 2nd, Ty Gibbs 4th)
-8 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-3 of the projected Top 4 drivers finished inside the Top 4
Notes from all point race projections this year (21 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 43 of 793, 5.42%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 330 of 793, 41.61%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 280 of 793, 35.31%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 21, 38.10%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 113 of 210, 53.81%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Carson Hocevar
Disappointment: Shane Van Gisbergen
Kyle Larson won the 2024 Indy oval race, and the stats, plus his speed this weekend, say he will win at Indy again. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 39th -38 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th -3 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 26th -23 |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 10th -6 |
| 5. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th -5 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 21st -14 |
| 8. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 17th -9 |
| 9. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 12th -3 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 28th -18 |
| 11. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +9 |
| 12. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 32nd -20 |
| 13. | 67 | Corey Heim | 1st +12 |
| 14. | 43 | Erik Jones | 27th -13 |
| 15. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 4th +11 |
| 16. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 37th -21 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 19th -2 |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 23rd -5 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 22 | Joey Logano | 3rd +17 |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 25th -4 |
| 22. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 24th -2 |
| 23. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 8th +15 |
| 24. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 6th +18 |
| 25. | 41 | Cole Custer | 13th +12 |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 18th +8 |
| 27. | 21 | Josh Berry | 7th +20 |
| 28. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 36th -8 |
| 29. | 33 | Austin Hill | 33rd -4 |
| 30. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 34th -2 |
| 33. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 78 | Daniel Dye | 38th -4 |
| 35. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 29th +6 |
| 36. | 38 | Zane Smith | 15th +21 |
| 37. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 30th +7 |
| 38. | 62 | Casey Mears | 35th +3 |
| 39. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.