This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 North Wilkesboro Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on 2026 Short track (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 13th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 12th, Connor Zilisch 28th, B.J. McLeod 38th)
-10 of the 38 drivers finished between 5-7 spots (better or worse) than they were projected
-16 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (20 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 41 of 756, 5.42%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 316 of 756, 41.80%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 269 of 756, 35.58%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 20, 40.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 109 of 200, 54.50%
Notable results this week
Winner: Christopher Bell
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Bubba Wallace
The last time NASCAR came to North Wilkesboro Christopher Bell ended up in victory lane. Now, his stats, and speed, say he’ll end up there this weekend as well. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Season Challenge opponents
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 19th -18 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 11th -6 |
| 6. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 15th -9 |
| 7. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 14th -7 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 30th -20 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 17th -6 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 3rd +9 |
| 13. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 26th -13 |
| 14. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 23rd -9 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 27th -12 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 20th -3 |
| 18. | 21 | Josh Berry | 36th -18 |
| 19. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 9th +12 |
| 22. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 8th +14 |
| 23. | 43 | Erik Jones | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 18th +6 |
| 25. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 32nd -7 |
| 26. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 37th -11 |
| 27. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th +21 |
| 28. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 24th +4 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 34th -5 |
| 30. | 41 | Cole Custer | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 38 | Zane Smith | 22nd +9 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 25th +8 |
| 34. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | 33rd +2 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 29th +7 |
| 37. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 35th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.