This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 New Hampshire Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen New Hampshire Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025/26 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Joey Logano
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Joey Logano 1st)
-6 of the 37 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (24 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 46 of 904, 5.09%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 378 of 904, 41.81%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 321 of 904, 35.51%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 24, 37.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 129 of 240, 53.75%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Kyle Larson’s best New Hampshire finish is 2nd, 3 times, with the last coming the 2017 Fall race. However, his recent stats plus speed this weekend say that changes this weekend. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 4. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 8. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 9. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 13. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 14. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 15. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 16. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 17. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 20. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 21. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 22. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 23. | 88 | Conner Zilisch | – |
| 24. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 25. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 27. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 29. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 30. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 31. | 40 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 32. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.