This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Richmond Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Richmond Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Ty Gibbs
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Daniel Suarez 23rd & Shane Van Gisbergen 30th)
-8 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-16 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the projected Top 9 drivers finished inside the Top 9
Notes from all point race projections this year (23 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 45 of 868, 5.18%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 359 of 868, 41.36%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 313 of 868, 36.06%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 23, 34.78%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 122 of 230, 53.04%
Notable results this week
Winner: Joey Logano
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Carson Hocevar
Joey Logano’s last Richmond win came in 2017. However, his Next Gen stats here, 2026 Short Track speed, and speed this weekend say he’ll get that next Richmond win this weekend Photo by Matt Sullivan — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 13th -11 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th -3 |
| 5. | 21 | Josh Berry | 8th -3 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 15th -9 |
| 7. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +5 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 26th -16 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th -9 |
| 12. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 17th -5 |
| 13. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th +7 |
| 14. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 16th -2 |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 3rd +12 |
| 16. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 25th -8 |
| 18. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th -1 |
| 19. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 33rd -14 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 21st -1 |
| 21. | 43 | Erik Jones | 27th -6 |
| 22. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 11th +11 |
| 23. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 14th +9 |
| 24. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 10th +14 |
| 25. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 37th -12 |
| 26. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 30th -4 |
| 27. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 38 | Zane Smith | 36th -8 |
| 29. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 24th +5 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 33 | Austin Hill | 23rd +8 |
| 32. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 18th +16 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 41 | Cole Custer | 29th +7 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 34th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.