This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Iowa Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Iowa Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 39th
Last weeks winner: Corey Heim
Projected Finish: 13th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-3 of the 39 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (22 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 43 of 832, 5.17%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 343 of 832, 41.23%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 297 of 832, 35.70%
-Correct Winner projections: 8 of 22, 36.36%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 116 of 220, 52.73%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
In 2024 Ryan Blaney won the first Iowa Cup race, and after winning the Pole the rest of his stats say he’ll win at Iowa again this weekend. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th -12 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 33rd -29 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 21 | Josh Berry | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 6th +2 |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 29th -20 |
| 10. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 36th -26 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +4 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 27th -15 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 31st -18 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd -7 |
| 16. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th +11 |
| 17. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19th -2 |
| 18. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 35th -15 |
| 21. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 11th +10 |
| 22. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 34th -12 |
| 23. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 23rd +0 |
| 24. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 13th +11 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18th +7 |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 25th +1 |
| 27. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 20th +7 |
| 28. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 33 | Austin Hill | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 30th +0 |
| 31. | 38 | Zane Smith | 16th +15 |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 8th +24 |
| 33. | 41 | Cole Custer | 28th +5 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 21st +13 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 24th +11 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 32nd +4 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.