This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Bristol Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Bristol Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 35th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Joey Logano 3rd, Todd Gilliland 24th, Riley Herbst 34th)
-12 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished inside the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (28 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 54 of 1,054, 5.12%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 437 of 1,054, 41.46%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 385 of 1,054, 36.53%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 28, 32.14%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 147 of 280, 52.50%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Erik Jones
Spring 2024 was the last time that Denny Hamlin won at Bristol, but the stats say that statement will change this weekend. Photo by Jeffrey Vest –Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8th -7 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th -9 |
| 7. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +0 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 3rd +6 |
| 10. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 11th +0 |
| 12. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th +0 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 33rd -20 |
| 14. | 19 | Chase Briscoe |
27th -13 |
| 15. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 23rd -8 |
| 16. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 35th -18 |
| 18. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 22nd -2 |
| 21. | 21 | Josh Berry | 6th +15 |
| 22. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 19th +3 |
| 23. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 21st +2 |
| 24. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 14th +10 |
| 25. | 42 | John Hunter Nemchek | 25th +0 |
| 26. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 20th +6 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 32nd -5 |
| 28. | 41 | Cole Custer | 26th +2 |
| 29. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 24th +5 |
| 30. | 38 | Zane Smith | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th +2 |
| 33. | 33 | Austin Hill | 29th +4 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 36th -1 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 37th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.