This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Gateway Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Gateway Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 18th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Austin Cindric 13th)
-13 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished inside the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (27 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 51 of 1,018, 5.01%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 425 of 1,018, 41.75%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 368 of 1,018, 36.15%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 27, 33.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 142 of 270, 52.59%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
In the 2024 Gateway race Ryan Blaney was forced to congratulate his teammate, Austin Cindric, on a Gateway win, but this week the stats say it will be Blaney’s teammates that will be congratulating him. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 35th -34 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 19th -17 |
| 3. | 22 | Joey Logano | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 9th -5 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 8th -2 |
| 7. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 25th -18 |
| 8. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 10th -2 |
| 9. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 17th -8 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 18th -8 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 31st -20 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 14th -2 |
| 13. | 21 | Josh Berry | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 24 | William Byron | 4th +11 |
| 16. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 29th -13 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 2nd +15 |
| 18. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 32nd -14 |
| 19. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 20th -1 |
| 20. | 38 | Zane Smith | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 27th -6 |
| 22. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 16th +6 |
| 23. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 5th +18 |
| 24. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 24th +0 |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | 13th +12 |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 6th +20 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 7th +21 |
| 29. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 23rd +6 |
| 30. | 33 | Austin Hill | 21st +9 |
| 31. | 41 | Cole Custer | 11th +20 |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 34th +0 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 22nd +14 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.