This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Darlington Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Darlington Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chris Buescher
Finished: 40th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Preece
Projected Finish: 29th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 28th)
-12 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-25 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the 40 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (26 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 50 of 980, 5.10%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 407 of 980, 41.53%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 357 of 980, 36.43%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 26, 34.62%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 137 of 260, 52.69%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Carson Hocevar
Denny Hamlin won at Darlington in the Spring 2025 race and his terrific stats say he’ll go to Victory Lane again this weekend. Photo by Jeffrey Vest — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 18th -17 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 37th -34 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 6th -1 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 14th -8 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 23rd -16 |
| 8. | 22 | Joey Logano | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 21st -12 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 4th +6 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +3 |
| 12. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 10th +2 |
| 13. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +0 |
| 14. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 2nd +12 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 12th +3 |
| 16. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 20th -4 |
| 17. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th +12 |
| 18. | 67 | Corey Heim | 19th -1 |
| 19. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 35th -16 |
| 20. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 27th -7 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 29th -8 |
| 22. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 30th -8 |
| 23. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | 15th +9 |
| 25. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 17th +8 |
| 26. | 38 | Zane Smith | 25th +1 |
| 27. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 21 | Josh Berry | 7th +21 |
| 29. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 16th +13 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 24th +6 |
| 31. | 41 | Cole Custer | 33rd -2 |
| 32. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 22nd +10 |
| 33. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 32nd +2 |
| 35. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 38th -3 |
| 36. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 34th +2 |
| 37. | 33 | Austin Hill | 28th +9 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 36th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.