This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Daytona Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Daytona Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Superspeedway tracks (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. At non-drafting tracks, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 5th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Shane Van Gisbergen 20th, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 28th, John Hunter Nemechek 31st)
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (25 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 49 of 940, 5.21%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 395 of 940, 42.02%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 332 of 940, 35.32%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 25, 36.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 136 of 250, 54.40%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chris Buescher
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Michael McDowell
Three years ago Chris Buescher won the Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona, and the stats say that he’ll do so again this year. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
(*Note: Riley Herbst was projected to finish 36th. This has been updated to project where Harrison Burton will finish as a fill-in driver for Herbst.)
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 40th -39 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 23rd -21 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 33rd -30 |
| 4. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th -16 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 24th -17 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th -9 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 22nd -13 |
| 10. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 14th -4 |
| 11. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 6th +5 |
| 12. | 38 | Zane Smith | 32nd -20 |
| 13. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 2nd +11 |
| 14. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +6 |
| 15. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -19 |
| 16. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 13th +3 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 39th -22 |
| 18. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 38th -19 |
| 20. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 21st -2 |
| 21. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 31st -10 |
| 22. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th +11 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 5th +18 |
| 24. | 21 | Josh Berry | 9th +15 |
| 25. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 4th +21 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 10th +16 |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 28th +0 |
| 29. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 1st +28 |
| 30. | 35 | Harrison Burton | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 51 | Cody Ware | 35th -4 |
| 32. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 7th +25 |
| 33. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th +3 |
| 34. | 67 | Corey Heim | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 19th +16 |
| 36. | 78 | Daniel Dye | 29th +7 |
| 37. | 33 | Austin Hill | 27th +10 |
| 38. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 25th +13 |
| 39. | 44 | Joey Gase | 36th +3 |
| 40. | 62 | Casey Mears | 37th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.