This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Kansas Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Kansas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 8th
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-8 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 2nd, Bubba Wallace 7th, Ryan Preece 10th, Austin Cindric 11th, Ross Chastain 12th, Tyler Reddick 18th, John Hunter Nemechek 25th, Josh Bilicki 37th)
-18 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-26 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (29 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 62 of 1,091, 5.68%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 463 of 1,091, 42.44%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 391 of 1,091, 35.84%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 29, 31.03%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 156 of 290, 53.79%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Erik Jones
The last time Denny Hamlin won a Kansas Cup race was 2023, but his stats here and on Intermediates this year say he wins this weekend. Photo by Jonathan Bachman — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 8. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 10. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 11. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 13. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 16. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 19. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 20. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 21. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 23. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 24. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 26. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 27. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 29. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 30. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 31. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 32. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 33. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 34. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.