This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Las Vegas Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Las Vegas Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Chase Elliott 8th, Ross Chastain 15th)
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished inside the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (30 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 64 of 1,127, 5.68%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 482 of 1,127, 42.77%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 399 of 1,127, 35.40%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 30, 30.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 162 of 300, 54.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: William Byron
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
Tyler Reddick’s last 2026 win came way back at Kansas in April, but his stats, and speed this weekend, say he gets his long waited next win this weekend. Photo by David Jensen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 5. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 7. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 11. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 12. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | – |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 14. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 15. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 16. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 18. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 19. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 21. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 22. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 23. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 24. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 27. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 29. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 30. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 31. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 33. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 34. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.