This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Phoenix Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Phoenix Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Small tracks (1-1.3 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 8th
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-14 of the 39 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-17 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (32 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 66 of 1,202, 5.49%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 518 of 1,202, 43.09%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 418 of 1,202, 34.78%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 32, 28.13%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 174 of 320, 54.38%
Notable results this week
Winner: Christopher Bell
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Alex Bowman
Christopher Bell last won at Phoenix in the 2025 Spring race, but his stats and speed this weekend say that he’ll change that on Sunday. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th -3 |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +2 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 28th -24 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 21st -16 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 21 | Josh Berry | 11th -4 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -26 |
| 9. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th -8 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 9th +2 |
| 12. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +9 |
| 13. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 8th +5 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 22nd -8 |
| 15. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 36th -20 |
| 17. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 12th +5 |
| 18. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 43 | Erik Jones | 25th -5 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 7th +15 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 37th -14 |
| 24. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 32nd -8 |
| 25. | 38 | Zane Smith | 15th +10 |
| 26. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 20th +6 |
| 27. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 67 | Corey Heim | 5th +23 |
| 29. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 23rd +7 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 33rd -2 |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 13th +19 |
| 33. | 33 | Austin Hill | 24th +9 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 27th +7 |
| 35. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 35th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.