This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Charlotte Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Charlotte Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Carson Hocevar 12th, Chris Buescher 13th)
-14 of the 36 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-14 of the projected Top 16 drivers finished inside the Top 16
Notes from all point race projections this year (31 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 66 of 1,163, 5.67%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 501 of 1,163, 43.08%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 406 of 1,163, 34.91%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 31, 29.03%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 168 of 310, 54.19%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Christopher Bell
Disappointment: Connor Zilisch
The only time Tyler Reddick has won a NASCAR race at Charlotte was the 2019 O’Reilly race. However, the stats say that he changes that and wins his first Cup race here this weekend. Photo by Brian Lawdermilk — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 8th -7 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th -3 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 39th -36 |
| 4. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 1st +3 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 34th -28 |
| 7. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 37th -28 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 12th -2 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 38th -27 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 9th +3 |
| 13. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 29th -16 |
| 14. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 43 | Erik Jones | 24th -8 |
| 17. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 14th +3 |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th +8 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 28th -8 |
| 21. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 15th +7 |
| 23. | 67 | Corey Heim | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 23rd +1 |
| 25. | 66 | Gray Gaulding | 36th -11 |
| 26. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 16th +10 |
| 27. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 21 | Josh Berry | 4th +24 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 26th +3 |
| 30. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 38 | Zane Smith | 20th +11 |
| 32. | 44 | B.J. McLeod | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 35th -2 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 27th +7 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 25th +11 |
| 37. | 33 | Austin Hill | 32nd +5 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 31st +7 |
| 39. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 21st +18 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.