This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Homestead Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Homestead Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: William Byron
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Ross Chastain 11th, Erik Jones 29th, Josh Bilicki 37th)
-8 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-9 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (35 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 76 of 1,316, 5.78%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 571 of 1,316, 43.39%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 456 of 1,316, 34.65%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 35, 25.71%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 189 of 350, 54.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Tyler Reddick
One to Watch: Ryan Blaney
Disappointment: Ross Chastain
Tyler Reddick won at Homestead in 2024 to clinch his spot in the Final 4. This year his stats say he wins again, but this time with no chance at a Championship. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | – |
| 2. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | – |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | – |
| 4. | 5 | Kyle Larson | – |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | – |
| 6. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | – |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | – |
| 8. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | – |
| 9. | 48 | Alex Bowman | – |
| 10. | 2 | Austin Cindric | – |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | – |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | – |
| 13. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | – |
| 14. | 22 | Joey Logano | – |
| 15. | 67 | Corey Heim | – |
| 16. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | – |
| 17. | 60 | Ryan Preece | – |
| 18. | 17 | Chris Buescher | – |
| 19. | 43 | Erik Jones | – |
| 20. | 3 | Austin Dillon | – |
| 21. | 71 | Michael McDowell | – |
| 22. | 21 | Josh Berry | – |
| 23. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | – |
| 24. | 38 | Zane Smith | – |
| 25. | 1 | Ross Chastain | – |
| 26. | 33 | Austin Hill | – |
| 27. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | – |
| 28. | 62 | Casey Mears | – |
| 29. | 77 | Justin Haley | – |
| 30. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | – |
| 31. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | – |
| 32. | 4 | Noah Gragson | – |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | – |
| 34. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | – |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | – |
| 36. | 10 | Ty Dillon | – |
| 37. | 41 | Cole Custer | – |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | – |
| 39. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | – |
| 40. | 66 | Chad Finchum | – |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.