This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Martinsville Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Martinsville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Short tracks (under 1 mile) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Chase Elliott
Finished: 36th
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 26th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Carson Hocevar 6th, Denny Hamlin 8th, Noah Gragson 20th)
-10 of the 40 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-13 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished inside the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (34 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 73 of 1,279, 5.71%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 551 of 1,279, 43.08%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 447 of 1,279, 34.95%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 34, 26.47%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 183 of 340, 53.82%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Pole winner, Denny Hamlin, has the speed and stats on his side this weekend as he is projected to win the Xfinity 500. Photo by Jared C. Tilton — Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 6th -5 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd -1 |
| 3. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 10th -7 |
| 4. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 35th -31 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 36th -27 |
| 10. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 23rd -13 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th +0 |
| 12. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 14th -2 |
| 13. | 21 | Josh Berry | 4th +9 |
| 14. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 8th +6 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 21st -6 |
| 16. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 13th +4 |
| 18. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 27th -8 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 24th -4 |
| 21. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 7th +14 |
| 22. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 28th -6 |
| 23. | 33 | Austin Hill | 20th +3 |
| 24. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 5th +19 |
| 25. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 16th +9 |
| 26. | 41 | Cole Custer | 34th -8 |
| 27. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 17th +10 |
| 28. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st -3 |
| 29. | 43 | Erik Jones | 29th +0 |
| 30. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 25th +5 |
| 31. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 26th +5 |
| 32. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th +2 |
| 33. | 38 | Zane Smith | 19th +14 |
| 34. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 32nd +2 |
| 35. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 22nd +13 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 33rd +3 |
| 37. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 37th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.