This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Fall Talladega Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Talladega Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Superspeedway tracks (drafting tracks) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. At non-drafting tracks weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Christopher Bell
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 3rd
Additional notes from last race:
-4 drivers finished where they were projected (Ryan Blaney 2nd, Joey Logano 6th, Ty Gibbs 10th, Ryan Preece 18th)
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-9 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 6 drivers finished inside the Top 6
Notes from all point race projections this year (33 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 70 of 1,239, 5.65%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 538 of 1,239, 43.42%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 427 of 1,239, 34.46%
-Correct Winner projections: 9 of 33, 27.27%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 179 of 330, 54.24%
Notable results this week
Winner: Chase Elliott
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Ty Gibbs
It has been 4 years since Chase Elliott won at Talladega, but his stats here, and Superspeedway stats this year, say he gets it done this weekend. Photo by David J. Griffin — Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Chase
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 36th -35 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 37th -35 |
| 3. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +2 |
| 5. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 18th -13 |
| 6. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 32nd -25 |
| 8. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8th +0 |
| 9. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 38th -29 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 22nd -12 |
| 11. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 3rd +8 |
| 12. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 7th +5 |
| 13. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 33rd -20 |
| 14. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 13th +1 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th +6 |
| 16. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 27th -11 |
| 17. | 38 | Zane Smith | 19th -2 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -16 |
| 19. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 35th -16 |
| 20. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 20th +0 |
| 21. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 30th -9 |
| 22. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 24th -2 |
| 23. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 11th +12 |
| 24. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 15th +9 |
| 25. | 66 | Gray Gaulding | 23rd +2 |
| 26. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +25 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 28th -1 |
| 28. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 10th +18 |
| 29. | 41 | Cole Custer | 5th +24 |
| 30. | 21 | Josh Berry | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 17th +14 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 39th -7 |
| 33. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 26th +7 |
| 34. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 33 | Austin Hill | 14th +21 |
| 36. | 62 | Casey Mears | 40th -4 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 16th +21 |
| 38. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 29th +9 |
| 39. | 78 | Daniel Dye | 25th +14 |
| 40. | 44 | Joey Gase | 21st +19 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.