This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Coca-Cola 600 Race at Charlotte. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Charlotte Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st & Brad Keselowski 10th)
-7 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished inside the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (12 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 24 of 453, 5.30%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 192 of 453, 42.38%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 151 of 453, 33.33%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 12, 33.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 66 of 120, 55.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Christopher Bell
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
Before last week Denny Hamlin had 1 All-Star Race win, now he has 2. Coming into this week he has 1 Coke 600 win, and the stats plus his speed say he gets his 2nd today. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 3rd -2 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 6th -3 |
| 4. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 34th -30 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -3 |
| 7. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 30th -23 |
| 8. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 15th -7 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 37th -28 |
| 10. | 43 | Erik Jones | 13th -3 |
| 11. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 23rd -12 |
| 12. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 5th +7 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th +6 |
| 14. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 33rd -18 |
| 16. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 17th -1 |
| 17. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 35th -18 |
| 18. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 22nd -4 |
| 19. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 38th -19 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18th +2 |
| 21. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 1st +20 |
| 22. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 32nd -10 |
| 23. | 67 | Corey Heim | 19th +4 |
| 24. | 33 | Austin Hill | 27th -3 |
| 25. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 12th +14 |
| 27. | 21 | Josh Berry | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 22 | Joey Logano | 8th +20 |
| 29. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 39th -10 |
| 30. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 21st +9 |
| 31. | 38 | Zane Smith | 10th +21 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th +6 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 24th +9 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 78 | Katherine Legge | 31st +5 |
| 37. | 66 | Timmy Hill | 36th +1 |
| 38. | 51 | Cody Ware | 28th +10 |
| 39. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 25th +14 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.