This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Nashville Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Nashville Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2026 Intermediate tracks (1.3-1.5 miles) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Daniel Suarez
Projected Finish: 21st
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Michael McDowell 14th)
-15 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 39 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-9 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished inside the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (13 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 25 of 492, 5.08%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 207 of 492, 42.07%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 169 of 492, 34.35%
-Correct Winner projections: 4 of 13, 30.77%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 71 of 130, 54.62%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Josh Berry
Denny Hamlin has 2 Pole wins in the Cup Series at Nashville, but no race wins. However, the stats and his speed in practice yesterday say that changes this weekend. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th -4 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 23rd -20 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 13th -9 |
| 5. | 24 | William Byron | 30th -25 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 8th -2 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 2nd +5 |
| 8. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 7th +1 |
| 9. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 34th -25 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 32nd -22 |
| 11. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th +1 |
| 12. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 37th -24 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 29th -15 |
| 15. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 3rd +12 |
| 16. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 17th -1 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 11th +6 |
| 18. | 38 | Zane Smith | 9th +9 |
| 19. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th +5 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 35th -15 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 26th -5 |
| 22. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 33rd -11 |
| 23. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 36th -13 |
| 24. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 5th +19 |
| 25. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 18th +7 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 4th +22 |
| 27. | 67 | Corey Heim | 25th +2 |
| 28. | 33 | Austin Hill | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 15th +14 |
| 30. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 38th -8 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 24th +7 |
| 32. | 41 | Cole Custer | 21st +11 |
| 33. | 21 | Josh Berry | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 16th +18 |
| 35. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 12th +24 |
| 37. | 51 | Cody Ware | 22nd +15 |
| 38. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 28th +10 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.