This article is a race finish projection for the 2026 Michigan Cup Race. The finishing order below is determined based on Next Gen Michigan Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating, and 2025 Big tracks (2+ miles, non-drafting, non-road course) Avg. Finish and Avg. Driver Rating. In addition, weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages, if there was any) and qualifying results are also taken into account. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 1st)
-8 of the 38 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-19 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished inside the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (14 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 26 of 530, 4.91%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 219 of 530, 41.32%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 169 of 530, 35.47%
-Correct Winner projections: 5 of 14, 35.71%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 76 of 140, 54.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Shane Van Gisbergen
Disappointment: Chris Buescher
Last year Denny Hamlin took home the checkered flag at Michigan. This year his incredible stats and his speed this weekend say he’ll do so again. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 9th -6 |
| 4. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 3rd +1 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 32nd -27 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 35th -29 |
| 7. | 24 | William Byron | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 31st -23 |
| 9. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 25th -15 |
| 11. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 8th +3 |
| 12. | 7 | Daniel Suarez | 6th +6 |
| 13. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 34th -21 |
| 14. | 43 | Erik Jones | 2nd +12 |
| 15. | 60 | Ryan Preece | 28th -13 |
| 16. | 38 | Zane Smith | 33rd -17 |
| 17. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 22 | Joey Logano | 7th +11 |
| 19. | 19 | Chase Briscoe | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 88 | Connor Zilisch | 37th -17 |
| 21. | 35 | Riley Herbst | 13th +8 |
| 22. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 19th +3 |
| 23. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 14th +9 |
| 24. | 21 | Josh Berry | 15th +9 |
| 25. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 11th +14 |
| 26. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 36th -10 |
| 27. | 71 | Michael McDowell | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 33 | Austin Hill | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17th +12 |
| 30. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 29th +1 |
| 31. | 97 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 30th +1 |
| 32. | 10 | Ty Dillon | 24th +8 |
| 33. | 4 | Noah Gragson | 27th +6 |
| 34. | 41 | Cole Custer | 12th +22 |
| 35. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 21st +14 |
| 36. | 51 | Cody Ware | 23rd +13 |
| 37. | 34 | Todd Gilliland | 22nd +15 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.